We asked our 2009 Deal Maker Top Producers (based on 2008 production) to provide their thoughts about the market in 2009, and what is in store for 2010 and beyond.
Land Report
By Brian A. Craver, CCIM, Gallant Properties, LLC
I like to be an optimist. No reason to dwell on negatives in the past. However, being asked to provide the 2009 Year in Review for the commercial land category felt like being asked to comment on this year’s Carolina Panthers 0-3 start…it was full of challenges, disappointments and many unknowns. Most of us were glad to ring in the New Year and put 2009 behind. If for nothing else, the new hope, attitude and perspective that we are somehow closer to beginning the arduous journey to economic recovery and health. Unfortunately, that may be where it stops as many of the fundamental challenges ….high unemployment, wavering consumer confidence, maturing debt, tight credit, decreasing property values and increasing bank failures…..continue to weigh on the ability for commercial real estate to thrive.
Stating the obvious, 2009 was challenging for all commercial property types including retail, office, industrial; and arguable most of all, land. The effects of the financial meltdown that began in 2008 were felt throughout 2009. Commercial land transaction volume was virtually non-existence compared to the highs of 2006 and 2007. Although most indices signaled the end of the Great Recession in June 2009, the turnaround for the commercial real estate business continues to be challenged as it lags the general economy. Most land owners, developers and deal makers spent a majority of their time during 2009 dealing with existing properties and projects with maturing debt, inability to obtain credit, rising vacancies, lowering rents and ultimately decreasing properly values. There was little demand for land as ground up development had dramatically slowed and the ability to finance all but stopped. Finally, those investors seeking distressed properties continued to be unsure of real estate valuations and if the bottom is really here.
Moving into 2010, there seems to be as much uncertainty as to what the future holds. For every positive sign there are equal data points that indicate we are on fragile ground at best. Although the nation is moving towards an economic recovery, it looks to be a jobless recovery, which is one of the biggest concerns. High unemployment against a backdrop of the unknown effects of the government bailout, such as higher taxes and potentially escalating interest rates, will continue to foster slow growth well into 2010. For land and other non-income producing properties, it will continue to be particularly challenged.
So you wonder, “Where is the optimism?” The good news is that lower pricing and higher vacancy can bring about more opportunity. 2010 will be the beginning of attractive buying opportunities for the next several years. There is hope that the pricing expectations between buyers and sellers can be bridged and land can be purchased at a price that makes development economically viable; that the economic uncertainty that has sidelined investors will become more clear and result in more acquisition opportunities; that banks and other financial institutions begin to move more aggressively to dispose of commercial real estate loans and financially distressed real estate assets; and finally there is demand to expand and grow across all property types so land as an asset class can start to make a comeback.
Living here in Charlotte, there is reason for all of us to be optimistic about our business and the greater community we live in. I am encouraged by several of the recent announcements regarding business committing to Charlotte as their headquarters thus increasing employment base. If we can focus on job creation, then we can begin to turn around an “0-3” season.
Editor’s Note:
Make sure to join us on February 25th at the Westin for our Deal Makers Awards Luncheon. Click here to register now.
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